Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 22.097954 26.486864 31.299700 36.940675 43.341589 50.349832 58.572977
2025-09-21 15.942213 21.790358 28.838818 37.832286 48.867229 61.828332 78.055747
2025-09-28 11.359268 17.396648 25.275540 36.038905 50.065996 67.423654 90.192677
2025-10-05 9.342943 15.709576 24.564946 37.317232 54.702345 77.046712 107.343197
2025-10-12 7.754850 14.230996 23.780444 38.191783 58.619992 85.731997 123.518016
2025-10-19 6.487243 12.946917 23.009620 38.859781 62.123594 93.879419 139.199855
2025-10-26 5.553091 11.994905 22.552102 39.834913 65.992617 102.580221 155.867065
2025-11-02 4.523899 10.657399 21.272653 39.367031 67.630634 108.150662 168.372895
2025-11-09 3.802489 9.723884 20.502998 39.559902 70.170929 115.011386 182.830600
2025-11-16 3.137359 8.747950 19.508109 39.244779 71.837451 120.594948 195.594987
2025-11-23 2.499179 7.669450 18.161352 38.169040 72.171333 124.142888 205.465264
2025-11-30 2.201540 7.282678 18.049916 39.189844 75.884599 132.856451 223.109438
2025-12-07 1.751948 6.444067 16.999740 38.556075 77.040171 138.030502 236.212183
2025-12-14 1.498055 6.038792 16.781488 39.441031 80.824046 147.493306 256.187857
2025-12-21 1.101060 5.084563 15.218190 37.585983 79.735340 149.171781 264.331291
2025-12-28 0.966899 4.875723 15.283759 38.906419 84.269221 160.000454 286.876273
2026-01-04 0.829782 4.604798 15.156102 39.809687 88.081175 169.769024 308.033181
2026-01-11 0.703494 4.319087 14.941703 40.499528 91.518503 179.018416 328.613538
2026-01-18 0.608213 4.110101 14.884641 41.506394 95.578334 189.423292 351.294800
2026-01-25 0.478002 3.685170 14.179136 41.023307 96.777664 195.021614 366.395941
2026-02-01 0.390867 3.400747 13.801911 41.222451 99.272098 202.884205 385.340808
2026-02-08 0.306733 3.070869 13.225850 40.897076 100.700761 208.925531 401.436021
2026-02-15 0.224475 2.675382 12.360760 39.786198 100.477653 212.038452 412.747485